Curious about the best longshot bets for Preakness 2025? This article breaks down which underdogs are worth a look, why longshots matter, and how you can join the thrill of the chase at Pimlico.
Why Do Longshots Make the Preakness So Exciting?
The Preakness Stakes is the second jewel of horse racing’s Triple Crown. Held each May at Pimlico Race Course, it’s where legends are made—or broken. But what makes this race so thrilling for fans and bettors? It’s the chance that an underdog, or “longshot,” could upset the favorites and deliver a life-changing payout.
Longshot bets are those placed on horses with high odds—meaning most people don’t expect them to win. But when they do, the rewards are huge. Over the past two decades, the Preakness has seen several unlikely champions, making every race a fresh opportunity for those who dare to dream.
What Are the Best Longshot Bets for Preakness 2025?
Wondering how to spot a true longshot in the Preakness? In this race, a longshot is usually a horse with morning-line odds between 12-1 and 20-1. These odds mean that for every $1 you bet, you could win $12 to $20 if your horse wins. Horses with even longer odds—like 40-1 or 50-1—are called “extreme longshots,” but history shows they almost never win the Preakness.
This year, the 2025 Preakness field includes several promising longshots. According to the official morning-line odds, the best bets in the sweet spot range are:
- Baeza (12-1)
- Pay Billy (15-1)
- Clever Again (15-1)
- River Thames (15-1)
- Sandman (15-1)
- Sovereignty (15-1)
- Gosger (15-1)
- Heart of Honor (20-1)
- Hill Road (20-1)
- Instant Replay (20-1)
- Caldera (20-1)
- Poster (20-1)
- Rodriguez (20-1)
- Tappan Street (20-1)
- Voldemort (20-1)
How do you know which ones are worth your bet? The answer lies in both history and the current odds.
Historical Trends: Success of Longshots in the Preakness
Let’s look at the facts. In the past 18 years, six Preakness winners have started at double-digit odds—meaning odds of 10-1 or higher. Most of these upsets came from horses with odds between 12.60-1 and 20-1. That’s the “sweet spot” for Preakness surprises.
Here’s why this matters:
- Horses in the 12-1 to 20-1 range have a realistic shot based on past results.
- Extreme longshots (like 50-1) almost never win the Preakness. In fact, there has not been a 50-1 or higher winner in modern Preakness history.
- Compared to the Kentucky Derby, which has seen several 30-1 or 50-1 winners, the Preakness is less likely to produce a total shocker.
So, if you’re looking for value, focus on horses in the 12-1 to 20-1 range. They’re longshots, but not impossible.
2025 Preakness Field: Key Longshot Contenders to Watch
Ready to meet the underdogs? Here are the top longshot bets for the 2025 Preakness, based on official morning-line odds and recent results.
Table: Top Longshot Contenders for Preakness 2025
| Horse Name | Morning-Line Odds | Notable Info / Recent Results |
| Baeza | 12-1 | 2nd in Santa Anita Derby, just behind favorite |
| Pay Billy | 15-1 | Won Federico Tesio, earned Preakness berth |
| Clever Again | 15-1 | Current form shows promise |
| River Thames | 15-1 | Improving, fits the longshot profile |
| Sandman | 15-1 | Consistent, could surprise |
| Sovereignty | 15-1 | Recent performances show upside |
| Gosger | 15-1 | Unique angles from recent races |
| Heart of Honor | 20-1 | Has shown flashes of talent |
| Hill Road | 20-1 | Strengths in closing, but needs a fast pace |
| Instant Replay | 20-1 | Notable runs, could peak at the right time |
| Caldera | 20-1 | Good connections, form is improving |
| Poster | 20-1 | Sneaky value if pace scenario unfolds right |
| Rodriguez | 20-1 | Has competitive races under his belt |
| Tappan Street | 20-1 | Recent results show potential for improvement |
| Voldemort | 20-1 | Intriguing, could be overlooked by many bettors |
Spotlight on Top Contenders
- Baeza (12-1): Finished a close second to Journalism in the Santa Anita Derby. Trained by John Shirreffs, Baeza has the class and experience to make an impact if he gets into the field.
- Pay Billy (15-1): Earned his Preakness spot by winning the Federico Tesio at Laurel Park. Trained by Michael Gorham, this colt has momentum and a proven ability to win under pressure.
- Clever Again, River Thames, Sandman, Sovereignty, and Gosger (All 15-1): Each of these horses brings something different to the table—be it recent improvement, consistency, or unique race strategies. Watch for last-minute changes in form or jockey assignments.
- Heart of Honor, Hill Road, Instant Replay, Caldera, Poster, Rodriguez, Tappan Street, Voldemort (All 20-1): These horses are the true wildcards. If the race falls apart up front or there’s a surprise in pace, one of these could come running late for a big upset.
What About the Extreme Longshots?
Horses listed at 40-1 or 50-1 (like Admiral Dennis, Admire Daytona, and American Promise) are fun to root for but almost never win the Preakness. History suggests your money is better spent on the 12-1 to 20-1 group if you want a real shot at a big payout.
How to Bet on Longshots in the Preakness 2025
New to betting, or just want to make the most of your wager? Preakness Stakes betting is all about strategy, timing, and spotting hidden value among contenders. Here’s how it works for Preakness 151:
Betting Rules and Where to Play
- Preakness 150 Future Wager: This is a special pool that lets you bet on the Preakness winner weeks before the race. The pool opens Friday at noon EDT and closes Saturday, May 3, at 6:00 p.m.
- Minimum Bet: $2 per wager.
- Takeout: 18% (that’s the house cut).
- Where to Bet: All major advance-deposit wagering (ADW) platforms, both online and at select tracks.
Types of Bets to Consider
- Win: Bet your horse to win outright. If he finishes first, you collect the full odds.
- Exacta: Pick the top two finishers in order. Adding a longshot here can boost your payout.
- Trifecta/Superfecta: Pick the top three or four finishers in order. These bets are harder to hit but can pay thousands if a longshot sneaks in.
- Exotic Bets: Use longshots in combination with favorites. For example, box a 12-1 shot with the favorite in an exacta.
Smart Betting Tips
- Don’t chase extreme longshots just for the payout. History says they rarely win.
- Mix longshots with favorites in exotic bets for the best chance at a big score.
- Stick to your budget. Only bet what you can afford to lose.
- Do your homework. Check recent race replays and trainer stats before betting.
Chasing Glory: Trusting the Underdogs at Preakness 2025
Betting on longshots in the Preakness is about balancing hope and research. The best longshot bets for Preakness 2025—like Baeza, Pay Billy, and others in the 12-1 to 20-1 range—offer real value and excitement. Remember, the thrill comes not just from winning, but from believing in the underdog – and seeing your faith rewarded. Good luck, and enjoy the ride.
